This game is all about Georgia Techs 3rd rushing offense vs. Utah's 7th ranked rush defense and I like Utah to win that battle for one they are used to the triple option from their days in the Mountain West facing Air Force. Secondly Georgia Tech Los when they faced top run defenses putting up 21, 7, 26, and 17 to 38th, 54th, 16th, and 21st run defenses losing all 4 vs. Georgia, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Virginia. Utah has the talent to stop the up the middle runs with their NT 325lb Star Lotulelei who anchors the defense up front and that is usually the key to the triple option, take away the first option.
Georgia Tech is 3rd with an 80% run percentage while Utah kicked their average up too 66% over their last 3 games with their injury to Wynn Hays has taken over and although I think he plays a huge part in this game passing the ball because he's been able to digest more of the playbook I think they will try to do most of their damage through Joh White IV who had 1405 yards rushing this year. Georgia Tech struggled in run defense this year allowing 4.70 ypc on the road and 4.53 overall.
The one thing I like about Hays at QB is he does not turn the ball over 0 INT in his last 5 games Utah is +10 and +20 in their wins with 32 gained. Georgia Tech is also +2 in the turnover margin but run more of a risk if they get forced to pass it as Utah has had the tendency to come up with interceptions. Also Georgia Tech known for going for it on 4th down and Utah is #1 in the nation allowing just 26% conversions. They are also stout on 3rd down defense 38% while Georgia Tech is 44% on the season and 49% in their last 3 games. That of course carried over to the red zone where they have given up 75% TD's over their last 3 games while Utah was at just 33% over their last 4. Utah is 36-15 in their last 52 as a dog while Georgia Tech is 1-6-1 in their last 8 and winless in bowl games under Paul Johnson.
To me this game is an easy one to decide mainly because the game starts up front and Illinois has the advantage on both sides. UCLA offensive line is mediocre at best and Illinois had 36 sacks and 92 tackles for loss they are physical and have top tier talent look for Whitney Mercilus to have a huge game. UCLA only had 13 sacks which will allow Illinois some breathing room for the first time in quite a while. During their 6 game losing streak they've faced defenses with an average sack % ranking of 43rd in the nation and UCLA is ranked 111th. Look for Illinois to get back to running the ball first as UCLA has given up a ton this year on the ground and look for them to get the best offensive player on the field involved now that they have some time in A.J. Jenkins who has 84 receptions for 1196 yards on the year. UCLA is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 as a dog and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 overall.
